[OfOneEarth]

The recent drop in the price of food is not going to last according to the latest report from the Royal Institute of International Affairs. Written by leading food expert Alex Evans the report argues that the effect of the recent drop in energy prices will soon be overwhelmed by climate change, resource scarcity and water availability. Only a second Green Revolution based on sustainability, resilience and equitability will meet the needs of a world of 9.2 billion people.

Much has been made of the growing population globally indeed most estimations seen indicated that we will to reach 9.2 billion in 2050, although the rate of growth has been slowing down slowly since the 1960s and is predicted to stabilise at around 10 billion in 2200. The GM industry uses the population growth, along with tougher growing conditions caused by climate change to push the adoption of their products on developing, and developed, countries. Ok, so this is really an anti GM rant then?

However as the report shows clearly the world already produces enough crops to feed itself, but that their location, use and allocation is not inline with demand. The fact that the number of people going hungry in the world, around one billion, roughly equates with the number of people overweight highlights this fact. Not true, the reason people are starving is because they cannot afford to buy the food or grow there own, not because it does not exist.

Demand for food, much hailed by the neo-Malthusians and the GMO industry another attack on a fledgling industry which has done nothing as yet however is but one factor effecting the global food supply there are a number of powerful factors that also have a major impact on food security and price:

Climate change, according to the IPCC climate change will lead to an increase of between 30 and 170 million undernourished people. The negative effects of climate change on agriculture will primarily effect countries in lower latitudes, where most developing countries are located. Sever weather conditions and water scarcity caused by climate change will also hit these countries hard, one of the reasons being their lack of resources to deal with these terrible twins.

Energy Security. The drop in energy prices are, the report argues, temporary, lack on investment in new exploration, dwindling stock, and the increasing use of crops for bio-fuels (The single largest factor in the price increase in 2008) absolute lie- biofuels had NOTHING to do with price rises, in fact biofuels were killed off by them, speculators in the commodity markets caused the price increases, as they removed their cash from the stock markets, biofuels were only coming online because of LOW prices all mean that once the present recession is over e can fully expect energy prices to rise again. Food prices, for which fertilisers, on-farm energy use and transport make up a large part, will be pulled up fast by this.

Water Scarcity. Nearly half a billion people live in countries that suffer from chronic shortages of water, by 2050 this could rise to 4 billion. Some of this is a direct effect of climate change but unsustainable water extraction and usage caused both by population growth and water intense agricultural methods is by far the biggest factor. Agriculture uses 70% of the worlds water supply. true, even organic farming can't do without the water needed


Competition for land. Increased yields from existing agricultural land will not in itself be enough to meet increased demand. New land will need to be brought into food production. not in my name it won't! You're not felling the rainforest or ploughing up grassland wilderness to feed anyone, ammonium nitrate will feed us However there is many demands on land, from biofuels production, expanding urban areas, that tend to take over some of this most productive agricultural land, timber, carbon sequestration and forest conservation all compete with food for land use. Equally importantly is the unsustainable nature diesel use, ploughing, recreational tillage, all of which is carried out by organic farmers too of existing agricultural techniques which is leading to the deterioration of existing land stock and there for lowering yields.

Another factor placing stress on the food chain, and health services around the world, is the changing nature of demand in developing countries, with the increased wealth particularly in Asian markets local diets are becoming more “Westernised” and meat orientated with an emphasis on highly processed rich foods.

World Bank estimates that demand for food will rise 50% by 2030, with the demand for meat rising 85%. This disproportionate rise in meat will add further stresses to the water supply. It takes 500 litres of water to grow a kilo of potatoes, 1,900 for a kilo of rice, 3,500 for a kilo of chicken and 15,000 for a kilo of beef. evidence?